Mercredi, 31 janvier 2024, se confiant aux professionnels du média d’informations au centre de l’actualité en République Démocratique du Congo CHANGE7NET7.NET, le lobbyiste et stratège en investissement Patrick Onoya, a rendu public sa 25e tribune parlant de défis de la diversification de l’économie de la République Démocratique du Congo.
Selon ce stratège en investissement, le Chef de l’État Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo a établi six engagements pour la réussite de son second mandat.
Ci-dessous, le tribune du président de l’Asbl « Action Fatshi 2023 », lobbyiste et stratège en investissement Patrick T. Onoya.
1. Contexte du deuxième mandat du Chef de l’État
Le Chef de l’État ( réélu) Félix-Antoine TSHISEKEDI TSHILOMBO a établi six engagements pour son deuxième mandat, parmi lesquels :
– l’engagement de créer plus d’emplois ainsi que
– l’engagement d’intensifier la diversification de l’économie congolaise.
Cependant, à quoi ressembleraient les défis qui l’attendent ?
Tel est la question à laquelle nous nous proposons de répondre dans cette tribune.
Mais avant tout, faisons un rappel sur un pan de l’histoire économique de la RDC afin de situer dans le temps notre problématique.
2. Économie d’exportation : héritage colonial de la RDC
Les travaux de Buelens et Cassimon renseignent que l’effondrement des cours du cuivre à partir de 1974 n’était pas un simple phénomène cyclique ( Voir la Figure No 1 : PIB réel par habitant du Congo et cours réel du cuivre ). Loin de là, il s’agissait d’un » déclin structurel « , car des produits alternatifs au cuivre gagnaient en importance.
Installé par la Belgique pendant la colonisation, le système économique congolais est resté intact de l’indépendance à nos jours pendant que l’économie mondiale a subi des » mutations « .
Par ailleurs, il faut noter que le succès de » l’économie d’exportation* » d’abord basé sur l’agriculture de rente et ensuite sur l’industrie extractive sur laquelle était fondé L’économie coloniale, faute de » mutation structurelle « , l’évolution du PIB réel par habitant du Congo Belge qui était en constante hausse durant toute la période coloniale était devenu régressif à partir de 1957 ( voir la Figure No 2 : Essoufflement du modèle de croissance extraverti ), soit trois ans avant l’indépendance, année où la structure économique de type » *extractive* » avait atteint ses limites.
3. Caractère structurant du secteur extractif
Le secteur extractif (produits miniers et hydrocarbures) est le secteur d’activité » structurant » de l’économie congolaise :
- Primo :* Sa part dans le PIB (au coût de facteurs) se chiffre à près de 30% en 2018, tandis que sa contribution à la croissance économique dépasse les 75% ;
- Secundo :* Son apport est quasi exclusif dans les exportations des biens (plus de 99% en 2018) ;
- Tertio :* Sa contribution dans les recettes courantes de l’État a avoisiné les 70% en 2018 ;
- Quarto : Sa part dans le volume des IDE entrant dans le pays est supérieure à 50% d’après l’ANAPI ; Cependant
- Quinto : Sa contribution au taux d’emploi ne représente que 24,49% en 2018.
Malheureusement, le secteur extractif a montré ses limites. D’où la nécessité » urgente » de la diversification de l’économie congolaise.
4. Les défis de la diversification de l’économie congolaise
Au regard du score peu élogieux du secteur extractif en termes de création d’emplois, soit environ 25% seulement contre 75% de contribution à la croissance économique, il va de soi que pour créer davantage d’emplois, il faut changer de fusil d’épaule : c’est à ce niveau qu’apparaît » l’agriculture « .
Par ailleurs, une étude d’un gouvernement passé a établi qu’un développement piloté par l’agriculture aura 11 fois plus d’effets sur le développement économique que celui piloté par les mines.
L’agriculture a l’avantage de se retrouver à la genèse d’une chaîne de valeur.
Ainsi, le Chef de l’État a donc raison de s’y intéresser.
Cependant, il faut s’attendre à relever quelques défis, parmi lesquels on peut citer :
- Défi 1 : Tenant compte du fait que l’agriculture occupe plus de 60% de la population congolaise, l’idéal serait que le gouvernement réussisse à mettre en place une politique qui favorise l’investissement des locaux dans l’agriculture.
Note :
Une analyse rétrospective des causes des échecs des programmes économiques mis en œuvre en République démocratique du Congo effectuée par Mutombo [3] met en évidence l’insuffisance des moyens financiers comme le filigrane de ces revers.
- Défi 2 : les multiples crises politiques et économiques qu’à connu la RDC de l’indépendance à nos jours ont carrément effrité le tissu industriel congolais ; ce qui rend la problématique du développement des producteurs et industriels congolais une préoccupation centrale. Pour notre part, ceci devrait se faire dans le cadre d’une » stratégie d’industrialisation par substitution aux importations » ;
- Défi 3 : sachant qu’il sera difficile de reconstruire le tissu industriel congolais sans une politique protectionniste suffisamment incitative pour développer le marché intérieur, le gouvernement devra se montrer suffisamment protecteur pour créer un cadre d’épanouissement des producteurs locaux.
C’est afin de contribuer à la réflexion sur la diversification de l’économie que nous avions développé le » modèle de croissance basé sur la création des effets de levier » baptisé » Modèle de ONOYA » que nous avions présenté à la Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion de l’Université de Kinshasa dans le cadre des » vendredi de la recherche « . ( Voir la synthèse de l’article ci-dessous référence
5. Conclusion
Les défis auxquels seront confrontés le Chef de l’État et son prochain gouvernement seront de type » changement structurel « .
Il apparaît que depuis l’indépendance, aucun régime politique n’a réussi à s’attaquer à bras le corps à cette épineuse question de » mutation structurelle « . À savoir qu’un changement est qualifié de mutation dans la mesure où les modifications opérées sont profondes.
Ce qui rend la taille du défi que s’est lancé le Chef de l’État considérable, à savoir : » celui de la diversification de l’économie congolaise « .
Il importe donc que tout congolais apporte sa pierre à l’édifice.
Pour ce faire, il conviendra qu’il puisse exister un mariage parfait entre les politiques et les scientifiques afin d’assurer l’accompagnement qui convient à cette vision ambitieuse du Chef de l’État.
Pour finir, nous tenons à rappeler la nécessité de l’existence d’un « comité de structure économique » au sein du prochain gouvernement en plus de celui de la conjoncture économique pour le besoin de la cause.
ci-dessous, Patrick Onoya donne quelques références pour soutenir ses propos.
1. Jean-Robert Mpia Izampwe, » Recherche sur les causes de la régression économique du Congo « , Mémoire de Maîtrise, Université d’Ottawa / Ontario, 2022
2. https://www.unikin.ac.cd/index.php/modele-de-croissance-economique-fonde-sur-la-creation-des-effets-de-levier-modele-de-onoya/
3. Deogratias Mutombo Mwana Nyembo, » Livre blanc : Mise en place d’un marché intérieur des valeurs du Trésor en R.D. Congo « , Weyrich Édition, Belgique, 2019
4. Frans Buelens, Danny Cassimon, « The industrialization of the Belgian Congo », Ewout Frankema and Frans Buelens(éds), Londres, 2013
Patrick T. ONOYA
Chercheur en Finance et Technologie
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Saya tidak sungguh luar biasa dalam bahasa Inggris tetapi saya menemukan ini sungguh ringan untuk dibaca .
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Ketika saya pertama kali berkomentar saya mencentang kotak -Beri tahu saya ketika umpan balik baru ditambahkan- dan sekarang tiap kali sebuah komentar ditambahkan saya menerima 4 email dengan pesan yang identik. Apakah ada cara Anda dapat mengeluarkan saya dari layanan itu? Terima kasih!
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Saya sering blogging dan saya sangat menghargai konten Anda. Artikel ini benar-benar menarik perhatian saya. Saya akan mem-bookmark situs Anda dan terus memeriksa informasi baru.
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Sangat menarik informasi!Sempurna persis seperti yang saya telusuri! « Media adalah pesan. » oleh Marshall McLuhan.
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Saya menghargainya, karena saya menemukan persis apa yang saya cari. Anda mengakhiri pencarian saya selama empat hari! Tuhan memberkati Anda. Semoga hari baik. Bye
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Seseorang pada dasarnya membantu membuat artikel yang sangat baik, saya akan katakan. Ini adalah pertama kali saya mengunjungi halaman web Anda dan sejauh ini? Saya terkagum dengan riset yang Anda lakukan untuk membuat publikasi khusus ini luar biasa. Kerja yang hebat!
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Terima kasih atas kritik yang masuk akal. Saya & tetangga saya baru saja bersiap untuk melakukan beberapa riset tentang ini. Kami sempat mengambil buku dari perpustakaan lokal kami, tapi saya rasa saya belajar lebih jelas dari postingan ini. Saya sangat senang melihat informasi sangat baik dibagikan secara bebas.
Sesudah saya pertama kali berkomentar saya mencentang kotak -Beri tahu saya ketika komentar baru ditambahkan- dan sekarang setiap kali sebuah komentar ditambahkan saya menerima 4 email dengan pesan yang identik. Apakah ada metode Anda dapat mengeluarkan saya dari layanan itu? Terima kasih!
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Terima kasih atas artikel yang luar biasa. Saya sungguh menyukai membaca ini dan menemukan banyak wawasan yang berguna. Teruskan pekerjaan yang hebat!
Mengagumi dedikasi yang Anda curahkan ke blog Anda dan informasi terperinci yang Anda berikan. Sangat hebat menemukan blog sesekali yang tidak berisi informasi lama yang diulang-ulang. Artikel yang luar biasa! Saya sudah menandai situs Anda dan menambahkan feed RSS Anda ke akun Google saya.
Beberapa hari lalu, saat saya sedang bekerja, saudara perempuan saya mengambil apple ipad saya dan mengujinya apakah bisa bertahan dari jatuh setinggi dua puluh lima kaki, hanya agar dia bisa menjadi sensasi youtube. iPad saya sekarang hancur dan dia memiliki 83 penayangan. Saya tahu ini sangat di luar topik tetapi saya harus membagikannya kepada seseorang!
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Seseorang pada dasarnya membantu membuat posting yang sangat baik, saya akan katakan. Ini adalah pertama kali saya mengunjungi halaman web Anda dan sejauh ini? Saya terkagum dengan riset yang Anda lakukan untuk membuat publikasi khusus ini luar biasa. Pekerjaan yang mengagumkan!
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Setelah saya pertama kali berkomentar saya mencentang kotak -Beri tahu saya ketika komentar baru ditambahkan- dan sekarang tiap kali sebuah tanggapan ditambahkan saya menerima 4 email dengan komentar yang identik. Apakah ada jalan Anda mungkin bisa menghapus saya dari layanan itu? Terima kasih!
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Artikel ini penuh informasi. Saya menghargai waktu yang Anda curahkan untuk menulisnya. Terima kasih!
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Ini adalah blog yang tepat untuk siapa saja yang ingin mengetahui tentang topik ini. Anda menyadari begitu banyak hal sehingga nyaris sulit untuk berdebat dengan Anda (bukan berarti saya benar-benar ingin…HaHa). Anda benar-benar membawa sudut pandang baru pada topik yang telah ditulis selama bertahun-tahun. Hebat, benar-benar luar biasa!
Bersama dengan hampir semuanya yang tampak sedang dibangun di dalam topik khusus ini, banyak pandangan Anda umumnya relatif radikal. Di sisi lain, saya memohon maaf, karena saya tidak dapat setuju sepenuhnya pada keseluruhan strategi Anda, meskipun menyegarkan. Sepertinya bagi saya bahwa ulasan Anda tidak sepenuhnya tervalidasi dan pada kenyataannya Anda diri Anda tidak benar-benar sepenuhnya pasti terhadap pernyataan tersebut. Dalam hal apa pun saya menikmati membacanya.
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Menikmati menelusuri ini, sangat bagus, terima kasih.
Seseorang pada dasarnya membantu membuat posting yang sangat baik, saya akan katakan. Ini adalah pertama kalinya saya mengunjungi halaman web Anda dan sejauh ini? Saya terkejut dengan riset yang Anda lakukan untuk membuat publikasi khusus ini luar biasa. Pekerjaan yang hebat!
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Saya senang menjadi pengunjung dari blog paripurna ini!, terimakasih atas info langka ini!
Sangat menarik info !Sempurna persis seperti yang saya cari! « Orang neurotik membangun istana di udara, orang psikotik tinggal di dalamnya. Ibu saya membersihkannya. » oleh Rita Rudner.
Sangat menarik detail yang Anda utarakan, terima kasih telah mengunggah. « Cara paling pasti untuk menyingkirkan orang yang membosankan adalah meminjamkan uang kepadanya. » oleh Paul Louis Courier.
Saya senang menjadi salah satu pengunjung di situs web luar biasa ini (:, terima kasih telah mengunggah.
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Sangat hebat info dapat ditemukan di website.
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Terima kasih atas artikel yang luar biasa. Saya benar-benar menikmati membaca ini dan menemukan banyak sekali informasi yang berguna. Teruskan kerja yang bagus!
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Hei di sana, Anda telah melakukan kerja yang luar biasa. Saya pasti akan menandai ini dan kembali untuk melihat lebih banyak. Terima kasih banyak!
Terima kasih atas tulisan yang bagus. Sebenarnya ini dulunya adalah sebuah konten hiburan. Terlihat kompleks menjadi lebih menyenangkan dari Anda! Namun, bagaimana kita bisa menjaga kontak?
Saya tidak umumnya berkomentar tetapi saya harus mengatakan hargai untuk posting yang sempurna ini : D.
Benar-benar indah info dapat ditemukan di web site.
Dengan segala sesuatu yang mana tampak sedang berkembang di dalam topik spesifik ini, banyak pandangan Anda ternyata lumayan menyegarkan. Namun, saya maaf, karena saya tidak dapat memberikan kepercayaan pada seluruh ide Anda, meskipun menarik. Terlihat bagi semua orang bahwa ulasan Anda tidak sepenuhnya sepenuhnya rasional dan pada kenyataannya Anda sendiri tidak benar-benar sepenuhnya percaya diri terhadap pernyataan tersebut. Dalam hal apa pun saya menghargai membaca.
Wow! Ini mungkin salah satu blog paling bermanfaat yang pernah kami temui tentang topik ini. Pada dasarnya Fantastis. Saya juga seorang ahli dalam topik ini oleh karena itu saya dapat memahami kerja keras Anda.
Saya puas bahwa saya mengamati website ini, persis info yang saya telusuri!
Terima kasih untuk posting fantastis lainnya. Di tempat mana lagi seseorang dapat mendapatkan jenis informasi seperti itu dengan pendekatan penulisan yang sempurna? Saya punya presentasi minggu depan, dan saya berada mencari informasi seperti ini.
Sangat menarik informasi!Sempurna persis seperti yang saya cari! « Orang-orang di mana pun sering menyamakan apa yang mereka baca di surat kabar dengan berita. » oleh A. J. Liebling.
Sangat menarik info !Sempurna persis seperti yang saya cari!